Ronald Wan returns with his annual predictions on who will bag the little man called Oscar. Would it be a year for bad guys and Old Men or would a likeable teenage girl named Juno steal the show?

After much ballyhoo over the possibility of the Oscars being canned due to the writers’ strike, the 80th Annual Academy Awards is going to happen after all. Never mind the Globes – this is the Oscars we’re talking about. It’s a multi-million dollar event with lots of beautiful clothes and jewellery on the red carpet, swanky gift bags, the Hollywood glitterati and the boring speech by the President of the Academy of Motion Pictures and Sciences. Seriously, the show must go on.

And we applaud the Academy for selecting a strong group of nominees this year from No Country For Old Men to Laura Linney inThe Savages. Most of the nominated films this year are pretty much independent or mid-budgeted, which means most people might not have watched half of the films. Well, I did – all of them. Don’t ask me how I manage to catch a particular nominated film when it isn’t showing in the local theatre yet. The Oscar fever grapples me to the point I would do things men would never do – just to watch a nominated film. But I digress.

In fact, all five Best Picture nominated films earned less than $300 million in the US box office, with about half of the amount contributed by the highly successful Juno. What does this translate into? The films this time are definitely less flashy than last year’s The Departed and Dreamgirls but at what cost? Do the regular moviegoers not care about the films although the Academy is conscientiously recognising art over commerce?

And judging from the slate of nominees, the Academy once again based its choices on the spirit of the times – the zeitgeist factor happening in Oscarville every year if you ask me. Look at No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood – two strikingly bleak films about drug deals, violence, greed and American capitalism that are culturally relevant today. Both films lead the pack with eight nominations each. Will the Academy voters base the votes on their moods? But then there’s this little movie that has generated lots of buzz and cheer among voters. It’s a girl called Juno – deemed as the Little Miss Sunshine this season. Will it deliver?

Lastly, you ask, “Why should anyone care so much about the Oscars? It’s all fake tears, fake boobs and definitely fake and undeserving winners (read: Shakespeare in Love). Why get so involved?” Well, let’s not get too self-righteous here. I will be frank with you on my reason being hooked to the Oscars for the past 10-20 years of my ho-hum life – I simply enjoy watching the orchestra playing at the bottom of the stage.

Best Actor

George Clooney in Michael Clayton

Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood [WINNER]

Johnny Depp in Sweeney Todd

Tommy Lee Jones in In the Valley of Elah [DARK HORSE]

Viggo Mortensen in Eastern Promises

It’s a shoo-in for Daniel Day-Lewis. His role as Daniel Plainview, the amoral and manipulative greasy oilman who schemes his way through the film, is at times fascinating and horrific. You are astounded at the ferocity of his character and scared by his evil, abject ways. George Clooney has momentum and is a favourite with Academy insiders. But who I really like – Tommy Lee Jones. His nuanced character as a father searching for his missing son in In the Valley of Elah had me floored with sympathies and emotions. Of course, his craggy face helped too. Nonetheless, it’s definitely a night for Day-Lewis.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Julie Christie in Away From Her [WINNER]

Marion Cotillard in La Vie En Rose [DARK HORSE]

Laura Linney in The Savages

Ellen Page in Juno

Once again, I would love to rave about Ellen Page’s wisecracking performance in Juno. But the buzz is with Julie Christie in Away From Her. The 66-year-old actress last won an Oscar in Darling in 1966. This year is set to be the crowning glory for her. Christie’s dazzling performance as an exuberant woman who slowly spirals and gives in to Alzheimer endears to voters, especially the older ones. Marion Cotillard as Edith Piaf in La Vie En Rose was another knockout performance (she’s 100% Piaf down pat) but it won’t be easy for a foreign actress speaking in a foreign language to win. The French actress might just have to content with her win at the BAFTA.

Best Supporting Actor

Casey Affleck in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men [WINNER]

Philip Seymour Hoffman in Charlie Wilson’s War

Hal Holbrook in Into the Wild

Tom Wilkinson in Michael Clayton

Javier Bardem will win by a long stretch. Clearly, I don’t see anyone usurping the Spanish actor, who was last nominated for Before Night Falls in 2001. His role as Anton Chigurh, the sociopath in Old Men who kills his victims with a cattle gun and uses the mere toss of a coin to decide their fates is evil personified. Watch out for the scene at the filing station where he discusses fate and chance with a petrified old man by the counter. Tense, calculated and evocative – that’s how we would describe Bardem’s stellar performance. His stare is enough to terrify, plus that floppy hairstyle is totally badass. A certain win for Bardem – no need for a coin toss.

Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett in I’m Not There [WINNER]

Ruby Dee in American Gangster

Saoirse Ronan in Atonement

Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone [DARK HORSE]

Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton

The field is the most wide-open in this category. Ruby Dee’s win at the Screen Actors Guild was a delightful surprise and might provide her the momentum to win. But then again, she’s relatively unknown and also, I find her scenes in American Gangster insufficient to make a strong impression. Amy Ryan’s haunting performance as a trashy mom in Gone Baby Gone is a revelation but the momentum isn’t there for her insofar. Nonetheless, I would love to see her win. As for Cate Blanchett, her reputation, name and uncanny performance as Bob Dylan in I’m Not There should win it for her. Besides, the Academy love biographical characters so Blanchett, who won in this same category for The Aviator in 2004, will strongly benefit.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men [WINNER]

Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton

Jason Reitman, Juno

Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly [DARK HORSE]

The elusive Paul Thomas Anderson made a cold and calculated film, which can alienate voters. Tony Gilroy enjoys some attention with voters as an insider but it will not suffice. Julian Schnabel won at the Cannes and Golden Globes and is worth a shot at the Oscar. But the buzz is definitely with the Coen brothers, who give us the brilliant Old Men that delivers in every technical and production aspect. They once picked up a screenplay win for Fargo in 1997 and look set for the bigger director statuette this time. In fact, they will be the celebrated duo at the ceremony, thanks to wins for editing and sound as well.

Best Picture

Atonement

Juno [DARK HORSE]

Michael Clayton

No Country for Old Men [WINNER]

There Will Be Blood

If I really had to follow my heart, I would pick Juno in a heartbeat. Ellen Page totally charms me with her caustic wit, ambivalent morality and the candour she carries with her throughout the film. It’s a delightful coming-of-age tale about a pregnant teenage girl who decides to give up her child for adoption. But then there’s No Country for Old Men, a well-honed thriller with strong narrative and character arcs and a pace that punches the breath out of you. It is an allegory of our times where morality cedes to a creeping dark time of greed and violence. Technically, it is marvellous with excellent sound and cinematography (the portrayal of the Texas West is a gorgeous art). On all levels of production, Old Men delivers. One more fact: I believe There Will Be Blood (another awesome film but too dark for my liking) will split the votes with Juno, leaving the field open for Old Men to win. But don’t rule Juno out just yet. Remember how Brokeback Mountain tumbled to Crash? I can see Juno picking up a screenplay win while Old Men takes Best Picture. Guess I listen to my head instead of my heart after all.

Best Original Screenplay

Brad Bird, Ratatouille

Diablo Cody, Juno [WINNER]

Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton [DARK HORSE]

Tamara Jenkins, The Savages

Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl

Interestingly, this category features three female nominees, which is a rarity when it comes to Oscar standards. And I believe a female will win and it’s none other than first-time writer Diablo Cody, whose script is so original, witty and very real. There’s a catchphrase every minute in this sharp screenplay, which helps to flesh out Ellen Page’s character ingeniously. Tony Gilroy wrote a brilliant script and is largely responsible for the success of Michael Clayton (contrary to popular belief, it’s not George Clooney). My heart goes with Cody, the former stripper turned Oscar winner.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood [DARK HORSE]

Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men [WINNER]

Christopher Hampton, Atonement

Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Sarah Polley, Away From Her

Once again, it’s a match-up between the Coen brothers and Paul Thomas Anderson. While the Coen brothers pick up wins for Best Picture and Director, perhaps Anderson will take the adapted screenplay win as consolation and recognition for an equally well-made film. But my gut feeling tells me the Coen brothers will strike gold once again thanks to strong buzz and making a good film out of a Cormac McCarthy’s best-selling novel of the same name.

For Your Consideration: The Other Categories

Seriously, don’t ask me what’s the difference between sound mixing and sound editing. I have no clue as well but that won’t stop me from picking the winners from the various artistic and technical categories. I’m not an expert but who can resist a bet?

Best Animated Feature

Persepolis

Ratatouille [WINNER]

Surf’s Up

Rats! Ratatouille should win it hands down. Come on…Surf’s Up?!?!

Best Cinematography

The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Atonement

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

No Country for Old Men [WINNER]

There Will Be Blood

The beautiful vista of Texas West was the star of the movie. It sets the tone and provides a conscious metaphor for the film itself.

Best Art Direction

American Gangster

Atonement [WINNER]

The Golden Compass

Sweeney Todd

There Will Be Blood

Everybody loves a period film, no?

Best Film Editing

The Bourne Ultimatum [WINNER]

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Into the Wild

No Country for Old Men

There Will Be Blood

If you seen the film, you will know why it should win. Disjointed and fragmented, the editing is top notch and provides an excellent emphasis for Matt Damon’s fractured consciousness.

Best Costume Design

Across the Universe

Atonement

Elizabeth: The Golden Age [WINNER]

La Vie En Rose

Sweeney Todd

The costumes are the talk of the film and steal more attention than Cate Blanchett’s performance. That really means something.

Best Makeup

La Vie En Rose [WINNER]

Norbit

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End

Watch Marion Cotillard’s transformation of Edith Piaf over time and you will know why it deserves to win. And come on…Norbit?!?!

Best Sound Editing

The Bourne Ultimatum

No Country for Old Men [WINNER]

Ratatouille

There Will Be Blood

Transformers

You hear the gush of wind in the landscape, the quiet footstep and the creaking of the motel door. All these add up to a suspense thriller in Old Men.

Best Sound Mixing

The Bourne Ultimatum

No Country for Old Men [WINNER]

Ratatouille

3:10 to Yuma

Transformers

See above.

Best Visual Effects

The Golden Compass

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End

Transformers [WINNER]

The robots in disguise will pull off a victory here. And I think producer Steven Spielberg will provide the necessary clout.