Ronald WanWho will win the Oscars? Will it be FROST/NIXON or curiously enough, BENJAMIN BUTTON? Or will the SLUMDOG bite the dust? The winner will walk away with the golden statuette and a glass of MILK. You, THE READER, will have to help RONALD WAN figure this out
I don’t blame anyone for not being interested in the Oscars. After all, four out of the five films nominated for Best Picture have not even cross the $100 million mark at the box office. And The Dark Knight, that one blockbuster film worthy of a shot and drawing the audiences, has been left out cold. So, why would you care?
Because the economy is suffering, dear. For a few hours on Feb 22 (Monday morning in Singapore), forget your financial or job worries and get caught in the excitement, buzz and magic of the biggest movie event of the year. The new producers of the Oscars promise the show would be set in a more intimate setting and with a song-and-dance actor Hugh Jackman as host, it would be like dinner theatre all over again. Fun times.
And besides, don’t we all love to hedge a bet? Here are my annual analysis and predictions (I have managed to watch all nominated films in the six major categories so I do have some credibility here) for the major categories. If I get all six-for-six predictions, the glass of milk is on you. Cheers.
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon and Milk are trapped in the political machinery, which voters are most likely to steer away from such subject matter. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, which holds a record 13 nominations, has better chances in the technical category. Harvey Weinstein of The Weinstein Company has been aggressively pushing for The Reader and nobody should doubt the powers of this maverick studio head (case in point: Miramax’s domination at the Oscars in the 90s through the millennium). The Reader could be the dark horse but seriously, I doubt nothing could really stop Slumdog Millionaire in its gun-blazing path. From the Globes, BAFTA to the various Guild awards, this crowd-pleaser fairytale is certainly behaving like a millionaire. Final Answer? Yes, this slumdog will take a bite off the Oscars.
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Best Director
Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Gus Van Sant for Milk
Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon
Stephen Daldry for The Reader
What a stellar category. First-time nominee David Fincher of Fight Club and Zodiac fame tackles a love story and a movie heavy handed by its technical wizardry. Gus Van Sant, an indie favourite and previously nominated for Good Will Hunting, brings such sensitivity to Milk. Ron Howard, who won for A Beautiful Mind, makes Frost/Nixon so much easier to watch than expected. As for Stephen Daldry, who receives his third nomination for his third movie ever made, is a talent to watch out for in years to come. That leaves Danny Boyle, the comeback director (hello, remember Sunshine?) who improvised and brought his crew into the streets and alleys of Mumbai and shot with a handheld camera. The effects? Amazing. Lock this winner down.
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Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
Josh Brolin for Milk
Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road
Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt
Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder
Heath Ledger wins.
Back to the recap: Michael Shannon was a tour de force in a handful of quick-fire scenes in Revolutionary Road. His riveting performance acted as a catalyst for the breakdown of Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet’s marriage. A surprise nominee to some but absolutely well deserved. John Brolin as city supervisor Dan White was a closeted counterpoint to Sean Penn’s openly gay Harvey Milk. As the suspicious priest, Philip Seymour Hoffman’s return in this category (nominated for Charlie Wilson’s War last year) is a beautiful blessing (pun intended). I’m glad Robert Downey Jr. received a nomination for portraying a comical role – something the Academy often overlooked. And that, my friends (chuckle, chuckle, chuckle), paves the way for Heath Ledger, the late Aussie actor who managed to make the Joker his defining role and whose death would honour him in memory and time with a posthumous Academy award. A standing ovation is due.
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Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams for Doubt
Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler
Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Taraji P. Henson for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Viola Davis for Doubt
Whoa. This is the most wide-open category. Anyone stands a chance. The way I see it, it’s toss up between Penelope Cruz and Viola Davis. Cruz as the crazy ex-girlfriend in Vicky Cristina Barcelona was just a joy to watch as she tears apart Javier Bardem and Scarlett Johansson in her fluent native language. Davis, as the mother of a boy caught in the midst of a scandal in the parish, was brilliant in just two sparing scenes in Doubt. She absolved his son of a wrongdoing and portrayed her love wholeheartedly (this was done without the son in the scene). And all this time, she was choking back tears and squaring up with the eminent Meryl Streep. My heart says Davis but I’m going with Cruz, who is more accessible with the Academy voters.
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Best Actor
Brad Pitt for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon
Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler
Richard Jenkins for The Visitor
Sean Penn for Milk
It will be a race to the wire between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke. I heart character actors like Richard Jenkins and his subdued performance in The Visitor struck gold with perhaps a number of voters. Frank Langella as the ex-president in denial brings a stately grace and humanity to a misunderstood person. Brad Pitt? I’ll just let the girls swoon. I thought the makeup and effects overshadowed the pretty face’s performance. Penn will have the votes of many voters who reside in California due to the political nature of his gay character Harvey Milk. But the Academy loves a comeback hero too and Rourke fulfills that role both on-screen and off-screen very well. After years in Hollywood exile, it’s glad to see the star actor in the 80s putting in a fight once again. I’m going on a limb to say Rourke clinches the award.
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Best Actress
Angelina Jolie for Changeling
Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married
Kate Winslet for The Reader
Melissa Leo for Frozen River
Meryl Streep for Doubt
Will we finally see the bridesmaid marrying off with Oscar? That bridesmaid-in-waiting is none other than Kate Winslet, who was surprisingly given a nod for The Reader instead of Revolutionary Road. Was her performance in The Reader stronger? I think she was just as good as the Nazi guard who suffered her secret in silent anguish and reserved dignity. The audience (or least I do) realise how much we miss her character after – spoiler alert – she hung herself in the prison cell. It was quite an affecting moment and you realise her performance was truly brilliant. Of course, Meryl Streep might spoil the party considering her performance in Doubt is equally impressive. Besides, she’s a sentimental favourite (15th nomination, if I recall). Kudos to Anne Hathaway, Melissa Leo and Angelina Jolie receiving noms but I am hoping this is the night reserved for Winslet. She will probably receive one of the loudest cheers of the night second to Ledger’s.
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For the Record
And the other nominated categories and second-guesses.
Best Original Screenplay Milk, since it’s the only Best Picture nominee in this category. Wall-E stands a chance, except a good half of the film is pretty quiet.
Best Adapted Screenplay Close call between The Reader and Slumdog Millionaire. Simon Beaufoy takes it for Slumdog Millionaire on a roll.
Best Editing Slumdog Millionaire takes another bite thanks to its frenzied pace editing in the slums of Mumbai.
Best Cinematography Benjamin Button stands a chance but Slumdog Millionaire should lap it up for its lush cinematography. Mumbai feels alive in its warm colours.
Best Art Direction Benjamin Button should take this award but I think The Duchess will at least put up a fight.
Best Costume Design Always a winner for period films. The Duchess will be crowned for its hyperbolic pieces. Have you seen the (burning) wig on Keira Knightley’s head?
Best Makeup Definite winner for the ageless and timeless Benjamin Button.
Best Sound Editing The Dark Knight.
Best Sound Mixing See above.
Best Visual Effects Benjamin Button wins again for its technical achievements in making Brad Pitt look so yummy at 15 again.
Best Original Song Don’t you just love the song and dance by A.R. Rahman in Slumdog? Jai Ho!
Best Original Score A.R. Rahman locks this category down. Slumdog Millionaire wins.
Best Animated Feature Wall-E, without a doubt.